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Swiss Finance Minister highlights UBS's lobbying against stricter capital adequacy rules. UBS Group AG operates through four main sectors: wealth management (50.9% of revenues), investment banking (20.8%), retail and corporate banking (20.2%), and asset management (6.3%). By the end of 2023, the Group is set to manage USD 792 billion in deposits and USD 639.8 billion in loans.
A potential increase in German fiscal spending could drive the 10-year bund yield to 4% by 2028, according to BNP Paribas. This spending, aimed at defense and infrastructure, may prompt the European Central Bank to raise interest rates in the latter half of next year, leading to higher bond yields and a stronger euro, projected to reach $1.20. However, the euro's ascent may face short-term volatility due to ongoing US tariff risks.
Wells Fargo advises investors to focus on large-cap stocks, citing concerns over the Russell 2000 index, which is facing a "non-earner problem." This situation suggests that many smaller companies within the index are struggling to generate profits, prompting a shift in investment strategy.
The Swiss National Council is set to decide on a proposed salary cap for bank executives, primarily targeting UBS's CEO Sergio Ermotti, whose salary for 2024 is CHF 14.9 million. While public frustration over high salaries grows, the focus should shift to enhancing capital requirements for banks, especially following the Credit Suisse collapse, which highlighted the need for stronger equity buffers. UBS faces potential additional capital requirements of up to $25 billion, yet the Federal Council's reluctance to enforce stricter regulations risks undermining the stability of Switzerland's banking sector.
Japan's land prices surged 2.7% in 2024, marking the fastest growth in 34 years, driven by economic recovery and increased demand from inbound tourism. Residential land prices rose 2.1%, while commercial prices climbed 3.9%, particularly in popular tourist areas like Kyoto and Osaka. However, concerns linger over rising construction costs and potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan.
UBS and ANZ have raised their gold price targets to $3,200/oz, citing geopolitical tensions, trade wars, and expectations of US rate cuts as key drivers. UBS noted increased inflows into gold ETFs as investors seek defensive assets amid rising uncertainties, while ANZ highlighted the impact of import tariffs on liquidity in the gold market. Spot gold recently reached an all-time high of $3,038.35, with silver prices also experiencing upward movement.
Germany's Bundestag is poised to pass a constitutional amendment allowing increased borrowing for defense and a €500 billion infrastructure fund, while the UK faces budget cuts. The EUR/GBP is expected to remain below 0.8495, with potential for three more Bank of England rate cuts this year, contingent on improved UK growth prospects.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to cut the interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.25% amid muted inflationary pressures, with current rates around 0.3% year-on-year. This decision comes as the CHF has recently weakened, although the outlook remains bullish for the currency.
UBS analysts anticipate a slowdown in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet cuts, with discussions among policymakers suggesting a potential tapering or pause in quantitative tightening (QT). Concerns about market liquidity and government finances have prompted this cautious approach, with a full halt to QT possibly delayed until May or June to avoid market confusion. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack indicated a preference for continued drawdown while addressing spending plans and the debt ceiling, hinting at possible temporary bond repurchases to inject liquidity later.
USD/JPY is expected to remain bearish, with the currency trading above 149 amid risk-on sentiment. The Bank of Japan is anticipated to keep rates unchanged but may be poised for a hike in July, influenced by corporate wage agreements. The upcoming FOMC meeting is seen as more significant for yen crosses than the BoJ's decisions.
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ubs lobbies against stricter capital adequacy rules says swiss finance minister
14:16 18.03.2025
german fiscal spending could push bund yields to four percent by 2028
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14:01 18.03.2025
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